The November hydro bill landed and the math was bad. A 29% rate increase, the largest single jump since 2019, pushed typical household bills to $120 to $150 per month after rebates. Homes still running electric baseboard heating? $200 to $350 through the winter months. For the average household using 700 kilowatt-hours per month, there was nowhere to hide.
The Ontario Energy Board simultaneously raised the Ontario Electricity Rebate from 13.1% to 23.5%, providing about $36 per month in relief for a typical customer. That cushioned the landing but did not prevent it. About $250 in additional annual savings. The underlying rates still rose sharply.
Ontario Electricity Rebate
~$36/month savings for typical customer
How Ontario Got Here
Ontario’s electricity pricing story stretches back more than two decades. In the early 2000s, the province began shutting down its coal plants, a process completed in 2014. Genuine environmental win. Also removed the cheapest source of baseload generation from the grid.
The Liberal government’s Green Energy and Green Economy Act (2009) accelerated the transition by offering generous feed-in-tariff contracts to solar and wind developers. Twenty-year contracts. Above-market rates. The costs flowed directly to ratepayers through the Global Adjustment charge, which at its peak accounted for roughly 70% of the commodity portion of a residential electricity bill.
A line item often larger than the electricity itself.
By 2017, public anger over rising hydro bills had become a defining political issue. Premier Kathleen Wynne responded with the Fair Hydro Plan, which borrowed billions to subsidize rates in the short term but added an estimated $4 billion in interest costs over 30 years. The Ford government renamed the program and kept the subsidies, recognizing the political danger of allowing rates to spike further.
The November 2025 increase is, in part, the bill coming due. Years of deferred costs plus new infrastructure spending have pushed rates past what subsidies can mask. The math catches up eventually. It always does.
The Global Adjustment
Most Ontarians have never heard of the Global Adjustment. It is the single biggest component of their electricity bill anyway. It covers the difference between the market price of electricity and the guaranteed contract prices paid to generators: when the province signed long-term contracts with nuclear operators, gas plants, and renewable energy developers, it committed to paying fixed rates regardless of what electricity trades for on the open market.
In practice, Ontario ratepayers are paying for the full cost of the province’s generation fleet, not just the spot price of power. When demand is low and the market price drops, the Global Adjustment rises to cover the gap. This is why Ontario occasionally exports surplus electricity to neighbouring jurisdictions at a loss while its own ratepayers pay premium prices. Read that sentence again if you need to.
Why Rates Jumped
Three things hit at once.
First, Ontario Power Generation is seeking roughly a doubling of the payments it receives for nuclear-generated electricity. Nuclear provides about 50% of the province’s power. Half the grid. So any increase cascades through the entire rate structure.
Second, the Regulated Price Plan (which sets rates for most residential customers) was adjusted to reflect the actual cost of supply. For years, the RPP had been kept artificially low through deferrals and rebates. November brought it closer to reality.
And third, infrastructure spending: Pickering and Darlington refurbishments, four major transit projects, grid upgrades, all financed partly through rates.
The Pickering refurbishment alone? $26.8 billion. That’s a lot of money to finance through electricity bills, and those costs will keep upward pressure for years.
How Ontario Compares
Ontario’s rates sit in the middle of the Canadian pack. Quebec and Manitoba, with massive hydro resources, charge 7 to 8 cents per kilowatt-hour. The Atlantic provinces pay more (Newfoundland ratepayers are absorbing the enormous costs of Muskrat Falls). Alberta’s deregulated market swings wildly with natural gas prices. Ontario’s rates are not extreme by national standards.
What stings is the trajectory. 29% in a single year. More increases signalled through 2028.
Energy Poverty and Low-Income Households
For households earning below $30,000 a year, electricity is not a line item you trim. You pay it or you sit in the dark.
One in six Ontario households spend more than 6% of after-tax income on home energy (the standard threshold for “energy poverty”). A 29% rate increase pushes some of those families into choosing between heat, groceries, and rent.
Ontario offers targeted assistance through the Low-Income Energy Assistance Program and the Ontario Electricity Support Program, which provides a monthly credit of $35 to $75 depending on household size and income. But uptake is low; many eligible households don’t know the programs exist or find the application process burdensome.
Energy advocates have called for automatic enrolment based on tax return data, a step that would cost the government nothing beyond political will. The government has not done it.
Pricing Plan Options
Ontario residents can choose between three billing structures: Time-of-Use (different rates for peak, mid-peak, and off-peak hours), Tiered pricing (one rate up to a monthly threshold, higher above it), and the newer Ultra-Low Overnight plan, designed to reward households that shift heavy electricity use to overnight hours. EV owners and anyone heating with electricity stand to benefit most from ULO, but only if they actually shift their usage. The savings require discipline.
November 2026: Round Two
The next Regulated Price Plan adjustment hits November 1, 2026. Nuclear refurbishment costs, grid investments, and growing demand will keep pushing bills higher through 2028.
Nobody is predicting a break.
The Ontario Electricity Rebate acts as a buffer, but it comes from tax revenue, not savings. The cost is shuffled, not shrunk. As rates rise the rebate grows too, adding to provincial spending obligations when the deficit is already $4.6 billion. Good for the bill, bad for the books.
Sources and verification: The 29% rate increase effective November 2025 is from the Ontario Energy Board’s published rate announcements. The OER increase from 13.1% to 23.5% is from OEB November 2025 communications. The $120-$150 and $200-$350 monthly bill estimates are from OEB rate calculators and energy analysis firms. OPG’s rate application seeking doubled nuclear payments is from Globe and Mail reporting. The Green Energy Act feed-in-tariff history and Global Adjustment composition are from the Ontario Auditor General’s 2015 report and subsequent OEB rate filings. The Fair Hydro Plan’s estimated $4 billion in added interest costs is from the FAO’s 2017 analysis. The Pickering refurbishment cost of $26.8 billion is from OPG’s project announcements. Provincial rate comparisons are from Canada Energy Regulator data and provincial utility rate schedules. The energy poverty estimate (1 in 6 Ontario households) is from the Canadian Urban Sustainability Practitioners network and Efficiency Canada research. OESP credit amounts ($35-$75/month) are from the OEB’s program documentation. The three pricing plan options are from Toronto Hydro and Hydro One rate pages. The November 1, 2026 next adjustment date is from OEB’s published schedule.
Follow Ontario energy policy at Ontario Pulse.